Cameron's flagship policy, Universal Credit, lies in tatters along with his credibility - Reeves
Figures from the small print of OBR Autumn Statement show the government’s flagship benefit reform, Universal Credit, has been pushed back until after the next general election in latest of a series of blows for David Cameron and Iain Duncan Smith’s crisis-hit project.
For months the Government has denied reports that Universal Credit is in trouble, repeatedly failing to answer detailed questions. Despite damning reports from the National Audit Office and Public Accounts Committee, Iain Duncan Smith told MPs as recently as November that it would be delivered exactly according to plan:
* On 18 November 2013 Iain Duncan Smith said Universal Credit was on course, ‘because of the actions I took over a year ago to ensure universal credit will roll out and deliver exactly as we said it would’.
* On 5 September 2013, Iain Duncan Smith told the house that Universal Credit will be 'On time and within budget’.
Buried in additional tables in the OBR’s 'Economic and Fiscal Outlook’, published alongside the Autumn statement, was the information that instead of the previously expected 1.7 million people on Universal Credit by 2014-15, there would now just be a handful, 'zero’ in statistical terms. And in 2015-16, instead of 4.5million, there would now be just 400,000 - less than 10% of the original target.
Rachel Reeves MP, Labour’s Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, said:
“David Cameron and Iain Duncan Smith repeatedly promised to deliver their flagship policy, Universal Credit, ‘on time and within budget’. That claim, and the credibility they staked on it, now lie in tatters.
"For months on end the Government have tried to avoid answering questions about Universal Credit but these OBR figures tell the truth of how David Cameron and Iain Duncan Smith have broken their promises on a spectacular scale.
"Eight months ago the prediction was that 1.7 million people would be receiving Universal Credit in 2013, now they admit next to nobody will be receiving it. They have been forced to admit that they have completely missed their targets and Universal Credit will not now be rolled out before the election.
"David Cameron and Iain Duncan Smith are presiding over a complete mess and it is taxpayers who are picking up the bill with at least one hundred million pounds of their money written off. Families facing a cost-of-living crisis deserve better than this.” Ends Editor’s notes: 1. OBR’s 'Economic and Fiscal Outlook’ was published alongside the Autumn statement; It revealed that 700,000 claimants would not make it on to Universal Credit by 2017. However buried in additional tables from the OBR was the information that instead of the previously expected 1.7 million people on Universal Credit by 20145-15, there would now just be a handful. And in 2015-16, instead of 4.5million, there would now be just 400,000 - less than 10% of the original target. And even under these new ‘reset’ plans, the OBR are sceptical that timetables will be met, stating that “there is clearly a risk that the eventual profile differs significantly from this new assumption” .
What’s more, the OBR suggest that the plans haven’t been signed off within government, pointing out that “the new migration timetable has yet to be subjected to full business case approval,”
http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/wordpress/docs/December-2013-EFO-Charts-and-Tables1.xls
(Chapter 4 chart A called Caseload volumes is the relevant tab)
2. July 2010: Government published Green Paper “21st Century Welfare” in which the IT changes that would be necessary would not “constitute a major IT project”.
Nov 2010: White Paper sets out the timeline that from October 2013 all new claims for out-of-work benefits would be for Universal Credit.
Nov 2010: Stephen Timms writes to IDS stating there is “a serious risk that it will not be ready for new applicants by October 2013.
Nov 2011: IDS claims over one million people will be claiming Universal Credit by 2014.
June 2012: IDS starts to row back by limiting introduction for new benefits to just one Jobcentre per region
Dec 2012: Yet more rowing back as the roll-out would only apply to the most straightforward claims
July 2013: Further delays announced – with just 6 more Jobcentres starting to accept claims from October 2013.
Aug 2013: Lord Freud confirms the 6 Jobcentres would only accept new claims from unemployed single claimants
Sept 2013: IDS says it will be delivered “on time and within budget”
Sept 2013: National Audit Office publish scathing report which finds £34mn of IT write-offs and says the programme must” scale back its original delivery ambition”. It also found a culture of good news reporting and a fortress mentality.
Oct 2013: IDS says “Universal credit will roll out very well and it will be on time and within budget”
Nov 2013: Public Accounts Committee publish their scathing report identifying at least £140mn of write-off.
Nov 2013: IDS still saying Universal Credit will deliver as he said it would.
Nov 2013: IDS confirms Universal Credit will not meet his 2015 deadline. Autumn Statement reveals that instead of the 1.7 million people expected to be on Universal Credit by 2017 there will now just be a handful.
For months the Government has denied reports that Universal Credit is in trouble, repeatedly failing to answer detailed questions. Despite damning reports from the National Audit Office and Public Accounts Committee, Iain Duncan Smith told MPs as recently as November that it would be delivered exactly according to plan:
* On 18 November 2013 Iain Duncan Smith said Universal Credit was on course, ‘because of the actions I took over a year ago to ensure universal credit will roll out and deliver exactly as we said it would’.
* On 5 September 2013, Iain Duncan Smith told the house that Universal Credit will be 'On time and within budget’.
Buried in additional tables in the OBR’s 'Economic and Fiscal Outlook’, published alongside the Autumn statement, was the information that instead of the previously expected 1.7 million people on Universal Credit by 2014-15, there would now just be a handful, 'zero’ in statistical terms. And in 2015-16, instead of 4.5million, there would now be just 400,000 - less than 10% of the original target.
Rachel Reeves MP, Labour’s Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary, said:
“David Cameron and Iain Duncan Smith repeatedly promised to deliver their flagship policy, Universal Credit, ‘on time and within budget’. That claim, and the credibility they staked on it, now lie in tatters.
"For months on end the Government have tried to avoid answering questions about Universal Credit but these OBR figures tell the truth of how David Cameron and Iain Duncan Smith have broken their promises on a spectacular scale.
"Eight months ago the prediction was that 1.7 million people would be receiving Universal Credit in 2013, now they admit next to nobody will be receiving it. They have been forced to admit that they have completely missed their targets and Universal Credit will not now be rolled out before the election.
"David Cameron and Iain Duncan Smith are presiding over a complete mess and it is taxpayers who are picking up the bill with at least one hundred million pounds of their money written off. Families facing a cost-of-living crisis deserve better than this.” Ends Editor’s notes: 1. OBR’s 'Economic and Fiscal Outlook’ was published alongside the Autumn statement; It revealed that 700,000 claimants would not make it on to Universal Credit by 2017. However buried in additional tables from the OBR was the information that instead of the previously expected 1.7 million people on Universal Credit by 20145-15, there would now just be a handful. And in 2015-16, instead of 4.5million, there would now be just 400,000 - less than 10% of the original target. And even under these new ‘reset’ plans, the OBR are sceptical that timetables will be met, stating that “there is clearly a risk that the eventual profile differs significantly from this new assumption” .
What’s more, the OBR suggest that the plans haven’t been signed off within government, pointing out that “the new migration timetable has yet to be subjected to full business case approval,”
http://budgetresponsibility.org.uk/wordpress/docs/December-2013-EFO-Charts-and-Tables1.xls
(Chapter 4 chart A called Caseload volumes is the relevant tab)
2. July 2010: Government published Green Paper “21st Century Welfare” in which the IT changes that would be necessary would not “constitute a major IT project”.
Nov 2010: White Paper sets out the timeline that from October 2013 all new claims for out-of-work benefits would be for Universal Credit.
Nov 2010: Stephen Timms writes to IDS stating there is “a serious risk that it will not be ready for new applicants by October 2013.
Nov 2011: IDS claims over one million people will be claiming Universal Credit by 2014.
June 2012: IDS starts to row back by limiting introduction for new benefits to just one Jobcentre per region
Dec 2012: Yet more rowing back as the roll-out would only apply to the most straightforward claims
July 2013: Further delays announced – with just 6 more Jobcentres starting to accept claims from October 2013.
Aug 2013: Lord Freud confirms the 6 Jobcentres would only accept new claims from unemployed single claimants
Sept 2013: IDS says it will be delivered “on time and within budget”
Sept 2013: National Audit Office publish scathing report which finds £34mn of IT write-offs and says the programme must” scale back its original delivery ambition”. It also found a culture of good news reporting and a fortress mentality.
Oct 2013: IDS says “Universal credit will roll out very well and it will be on time and within budget”
Nov 2013: Public Accounts Committee publish their scathing report identifying at least £140mn of write-off.
Nov 2013: IDS still saying Universal Credit will deliver as he said it would.
Nov 2013: IDS confirms Universal Credit will not meet his 2015 deadline. Autumn Statement reveals that instead of the 1.7 million people expected to be on Universal Credit by 2017 there will now just be a handful.